Author Topic: Ratings?  (Read 399 times)

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hberciunas

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Ratings?
« on: August 16, 2013, 08:06:00 AM »
I am really confused. New ratings out this week.

I have been playing well above my rating most of the summer in several tourneys.
As of Aug. 13 I went down 1 point????

Also they only used 1 round since the last rating????? All the events have had 2 or more rounds . . . ???

Very confused.
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thankyoupeter

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Re: Ratings?
« Reply #1 on: August 16, 2013, 08:29:10 AM »
If you have at least 8 rounds in the last year, they only factor in rounds one year from the most recent update, so all your 2012 summer rounds dropped off from your rating, which is why you only saw a "rounds used" increase of one round.  Even if you've been playing well this summer, if you had several good 2012 summer rounds drop off your rating, you wouldn't see much of a change.  The last 25% of your rounds are double weighted, and it looks like your rating is basically correct. 

Here's the language on ratings from the PDGA website-

"All rated rounds you have played and have been reported to the PDGA within 12 months of your most recently rated round will be included in the calculation. However, if any one of those ratings is either more than 100 points below your average rating or more than 2.5 standard deviations below your rating – whichever number is smaller – that round will not be included. That works out to about 1 in 50 rounds getting dropped. Rounds where you DNF (Do Not Finish) are never counted in your rating. The most recent 25% of your rounds get double weighted which slightly boosts your rating if you have been steadily improving. If a player has fewer than 8 rounds in the past 12 months, since their most recent round, then we’ll go back up to another 12 months until we find up to 8 rounds but never go back any farther than a total of 24 months."
« Last Edit: August 16, 2013, 08:38:04 AM by thankyoupeter »

eeastwood

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Re: Ratings?
« Reply #2 on: August 16, 2013, 08:32:41 AM »
Those events weren't included in this rating update (MAC and Run for Roses).  There is a lag.  "PDGA Player Ratings Updated: August 13, 2013
The latest PDGA Player ratings were published on 8/13/2013 and include events reported by the 7/23 submission deadline." 
  If you look at your events, then you can see which rounds were included.  Don't worry, they will be included next month. 

My rating went up 8 points.  980 baby!

kidmills

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Re: Ratings?
« Reply #3 on: August 16, 2013, 08:42:20 AM »
888 to 893,moving up

Peter Bures

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Re: Ratings?
« Reply #4 on: August 16, 2013, 10:29:25 AM »
Up to 949.

Next update will include Run for the Roses and the MAC. Played poorly at the former but well at the latter, should cancel out.

jhinck2

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Re: Ratings?
« Reply #5 on: August 16, 2013, 10:32:32 AM »
I moved up a WHOPPING 1 point to 974 - probably thanks to the PDGA Monday night leagues.  I haven't had anything else to contribute except the MAC where I averaged a 983.  I doubt that will help much, but got the Rumble in the Jungle this weekend!
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andyportwood

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Re: Ratings?
« Reply #6 on: August 16, 2013, 10:44:38 AM »
Finally about to crack the 900's! Up to 898...
Throw farther, not harder...
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hberciunas

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Re: Ratings?
« Reply #7 on: August 17, 2013, 10:24:29 AM »
New rating is 865

Last 15 rated PDGA rounds average out to 875.
Only 4 of 15 below my rating. 2 were bad but not below 800.
Four rounds abouv 900. Two 890+.

I didn't have any 900 rounds last year.

I guess it doesn't matter . . . as long as I know I am getting better.
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robm

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Re: Ratings?
« Reply #8 on: August 17, 2013, 01:07:31 PM »
copied and pasted your ratings into an excel spreadsheet.
Your 38 rounds used from Run from the Roses last year until now averages 862.82.
The last 25% of your rounds are double weighted which would bring your average up slightly.
Your median is 865.5
Your Mid-America tournament is still dragging you down. 783,786,813
The 807 KCWo 2013 & Might Mo (807 & 817) is recent, so it is being double weighted which is also dragging you down.

Without seeing your ratings from last year that produced 866, my guess is while you have had some really good rounds (942, 926, 924) you have had some really rough rounds that are balancing it out, producing a statically net neutral change.

Also, if you have 1 or 2 really, really bad rounds (i.e. more than a 2 or 2.5 negative differential, the PDGA formula drops them off.  So it is actually better to have 1 or 2 just absolutely terrible rounds then 4-5 mediocre bad rounds. 

From a statistical analysis perspective, while there is a lot of griping about the PDGA rating system, IMHO once you get above 15-20 rounds, it really is pretty accurate.  On a round by round basis, not so much, on a weighted average basis over 20, it's pretty good.

For example, I had my first sub-700 round (689) at NE League at Blue Valley.  Am I really that bad?  No - long holes just kill me.  I also had a 912, 921, and 930 at NE League at Cliff.  Am I really that good?  No.  My 908 at Am Worlds I think is a legit 900+, but I trust that rating more because there were 80+ propagator players being analyzed, and the NE League where I got my 689 had only 14 propagators.  That is one of the reasons why they throw out super bad rounds.

 
« Last Edit: August 17, 2013, 01:16:02 PM by robm »
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hberciunas

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Re: Ratings?
« Reply #9 on: August 18, 2013, 08:29:00 AM »
Yea. Mighty mo and two crap rounds at kcwo really hurt. When mac, run for roses and derby league get recrded it will change.  Ratings are pretty accurate,  just don't think mine are spot on due to a few rounds recently where I fell apart. Although those are my rounds and show mental mistakes that I have to correct to improve my rating and play.
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spinachio

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Re: Ratings?
« Reply #10 on: August 18, 2013, 04:31:34 PM »
Quit crying and post some ftl scores.
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